Draft week

The Buffalo News did a piece today that was obvious for those that have been paying attention lately.

If the Sabres pick at 23, then I'm going to expect them to take a North American that plays in the CHL. Over the past 3 drafts (2007 through 2009), the Sabres have made 22 picks. All 22 have been North Americans. And here is their league based on round:

1st Round - 3 picks - 3 from the CHL (2 WHL & 1 OHL)
2nd Round - 3 picks - 3 from the CHL (2 QMJHL & 1 OHL)
3rd Round - 3 picks - 1 CHL (WHL), 1 Jr A (USHL), 1 US High School
4th Round - 3 picks - 2 CHL (1 QMJHL & 1 OHL), 1 US High School
5th Round - 4 picks - 2 CHL (2 QMJHL), 1 Jr A (AJHL), 1 US High School
6th Round - 3 picks - 2 CHL (1 QMJHL & 1 OHL), 1 NCAA
7th Round - 3 picks - 1 CHL (1 QMJHL), 1 Jr A (EJHL), 1 US High School

14 of the picks have been from the CHL (and 6 out of 6 in the first two rounds) and 8 have been players that were either playing NCAA hockey (1) or in a league that traditionally feeds the NCAA (Jr A or US High School) (7).

If the Sabres follow the recent trend, they will take a player from the CHL in the first round. From there, it is 50-50 between CHL players and players that will liekly end up playing NCAA college hockey.

So, I'm expecting the Sabres to look at guys like Dylan McIlrath (Moose Jaw - WHL), Emerson Etem (Medicine Hat - WHL), Quinton Howden (Moose Jaw - WHL), Mark Pysyk (Edmonton - WHL), or Ryan Johansen (Portland - WHL) if they are on the clock at 23 and the stick to their recent draft pattern.

I would be mildly surprised if they too an NCAA or Jr A (ie headed to the NCAA) guy in the 1st and I'd be really surprised if they took a European player, even if he was a CHL-based Euro ala Alexander Burmistrov.

And I'd be completely stunned if they were the team to roll the dice on Kirill Kabanov.