Tuesday, June 30, 2009

One day away and Jay McKee is available.....

We are one day away from Free Agency starting and a name familiar to Sabres fans is now available.

The St. Louis Blues opted to buy out the final year of Jay McKee's contract. McKee had trouble staying healthy in St. Louis playing in 23, 66, and 69 games in the three years with the Blues after signing a 4 year $16 million UFA contract with the club three summers ago.

Jay loves Western New York and wanted to stay in Buffalo, but the money changed his mind. It will be interesting to see how much interest there is for Jay. Despite all the injuries (he has only played 70+ games 5 times in his 12 year career), he is only 31 years old and turns 32 in September.

If he is willing to take Teppo Numminen-type dollars ($1 to 2 million range), I could see the Sabres having some interest. But, we shall see............

Who else could the Sabres be interested in?

Some people are speculating that the Sabres could be interested in Rochester native Brian Gionta. It will be interesting to see what kind of offers Gionta gets as he has seen his goal totals drop off after his career high of 48 in 2005-06. The past three seasons Gionta has only potted 25, 22, and 20 goals.

Again, depending on where the market goes, I could see the Sabres rolling the dice on Gionta as a replacement for Max Afinogenov and Ales Kotalik. But, I can't see the Sabres going much over $2 million a year for a guy that needs to get his game back on track.

One guy I'm interested in seeing what happens with him is Columbus center Manny Malhotra. THN's Ryan Kennedy says that Malhotra is likely to test the market as he wants #1 center dollars as he was a top line guy in Columbus. But, the feeling around the league is that he's more of a 3rd line guy.

If Malhotra is seeking top line money, that will likely price him out of the Sabres plans. But, he is the type of player that I would like the Sabres to add as insurance in the event that Tim Connolly struggles with injuries again. On top of that, Malhotra was top 5 in the NHL in Faceoff % last season and the Sabres could stand to improve in that department.

On defense, a couple of Nashville Predators could be good fits in Buffalo in Greg de Vries and Greg Zanon. Neither guy will cost and arm and a leg, but they both would add the veteran leadership and grit that the Sabres blueline could use. The key there, along with a potential move to add Jay McKee, would be whether the Sabres can move Henrik Tallinder and/or Toni Lydman.

My Day Before UFA Day Crazy Thought

It will never happen, but it would be interesting to see what the Sabres could get if they were to shop Ryan Miller.

Colorado, LA, and Edmonton would all appear to be desperate for a starting goalie like Ryan Miller.

Could the Sabres pry RFA defenseman Jack Johnson plus another key piece like goalie Jonathon Bernier or defenseman Colton Teubert out of the Kings?

Could they get Jordan Eberle or Sam Gagner and Theo Peckham out of the Oilers?

I can't imagine that the Avalanche would move Matt Duchene, but I'd ask and have Ryan O'Reilly and Kevin Shattenkirk.

I would then target Craig Anderson to start in Miller's spot until Jhonas Enroth is ready to go.

These moves would add to the Sabres prospect depth, clear budget space to upgrade the defense and/or forwards, and give the Sabres above average goaltending moving forward.

I know the thought of trading Miller is crazy. That's why it's the crazy thought of the day!

Monday, June 29, 2009

Looking back at the draft and forward to Free Agency

Sabres Prospects.com

Sabres.com

The Buffalo News

This year, the Sabres focused on size, toughness, and grit in the draft as went all North American with their 6 picks and all their picks have size and toughness in their descriptions.

1st Round - 13th overall - Zack Kassian - I loved this pick as Kassian was getting compared to Boston's Milan Lucic a lot prior to the draft. Kassian was the only real tough guy forward with 1st round skill in this year's draft. More than a few fans were disappointed that the Sabres passed on guys with more offensive upside, such as Jordan Schroeder from the University of Minnesota. But, I am not one of them. The Sabres have a lot of small, skilled guys on their roster and in the prospect pipeline. They don't have a lot of guys with top 6 skill and the size and toughness to open up space for the smaller guys. Kassian has the potential to do that in the NHL.

3rd Round - 66th overall - Brayden McNabb - At 6'4" and 200 lbs, McNabb is a big blueliner that has a bit of an offensive game. The big question for McNabb is his skating as he was exploited at the U-18s for Canada when their coaching staff asked him to play more conservatively than he is used to. Hopefully he turns into a physical defensive defenseman who can skate well enough to be effective. He looks to also add the size and toughness to help clear out the front of the crease. That element is missing in the Sabres pipeline outside of Mike Weber. With the Sabres' needs up the middle, an argument could have been made for guys like Michael Latta and Ryan Bourque at this spot. But, I won't argue too loud, especially given McNabb's experience playing with Tyler Myers in prep school.

4th Round - 104th overall - Marcus Foligno - Mike's second son to be drafted wanted to be a Sabre so bad that he was upset when the team didn't take him in the 3rd round. The Sabres see Marcus in the Paul Gaustad mold and their is nothing wrong with that. Again, this is a pick that I love. The Sabres are already talking about moving Foligno from LW to center, so that is a plus as well.

5th Round - 134th overall - Mark Adams - Adams is a guy that is flying under the radar a bit as he's Massachusetts prep school player who is slated to head to the Chicago Steel of the USHL before heading off to Providence College for the 2010-11 season. Sabres Prospects.com has Adams listed at 6'2" 205 lbs (NHL.com had him at 6'1" 187 lbs), so he's another guy 6'2" or taller and 200+ lbs. At the high school level, he was also a solid skater and contributed a lot offensively. The Sabres are likely to give Adams more than few years to mature before making a decision on him.

6th Round - 164th overall - Connor Knapp - Knapp was the Sabres yearly goalie prospect pick. At 6'5" 215 lbs, the Miami University goalie certainly has the size that is in vogue in the NHL. He had a solid freshman year for the Redhawks, but was on the bench during Miami's run to the NCAA Championship game. It will be interesting to see how he does over the next few years, along with guys like Brad Eidsness at North Dakota and Nick Eno at Bowling Green.

7th Round - 194th overall - Maxime Legault - The 6'2" 195 lb RW from Shawinigan is an overage draftee that the Sabres could choose to sign this summer and stick in Portland (or a lower league) or they can opt to have him return to the Q for an overage season. Legault is another lunch pail guy that won't fill up a stat sheet, but could develop into a 4th line guy that is tough to play against.

In summary, the Sabres draft strategy was pretty simple this year: get as many big, tough guys that are tough to play against into the system.

I can't argue with a blue collar draft for the Blue & Gold!

Free Agency starts up on Wednesday

THN Blog - Sam McCaig's all-overlooked free agent team

The Sabres will stick to the game plan that they've had recently with the owner, managing partner, GM, and head coach all coming back for another year.

So while some fans want big moves to happen, that just isn't in the offing for the Sabres. Chris Pronger was never coming to Buffalo. Jay Bouwmeester was never coming to Buffalo. Marian Gaborik, Marian Hossa, and Martin Havlat won't be coming to Buffalo.

But what I'm hoping for is that the Sabres look at some second tier guys like Chad Larose, Johnny Oduya, and Greg de Vries could be guys that could fit in on the Sabres if they are indeed under the radar guys.

I think Oduya is a guy that will get a lot of interest around the league, so I wouldn't be surprised if he were priced out of the Sabres budget.

The perfect forward for the Sabres this off season could be Ian Laperriere. He has the grit and leadership that could help stir up the locker room without costing an arm and a leg.

Greg de Vries could be the type of guy the Sabres want to help break Tyler Myers into the NHL.

But, what the Sabres do in free agency will be driven as much by what they are able to do with regards to moving contracts like Jochen Hecht and Henrik Tallinder as by the market. Darcy Regier will likely have a budget of around $50 million to work with this year and they already have around $46 million on the books for next season before re-signing any of their RFAs (Stafford, Sekera, Kaleta, and MacArthur) or UFAs (Ellis, Peters, and Spacek). Teppo Numminen, Max Afinogenov and Dominic Moore are also UFAs-to-be, but I would be surprised if they are back next season.

Personally, my hopes for the rest of the off season are influenced by the constraints that the Sabres are working under and the history of the current management of the team.

My hope is that they turn over 4 or 5 roster spots, trading away Hecht and Tallinder in the process, and add a Cup winner or two during that process.

I don't need a big name guy to land in Buffalo to be happy (although that would be nice). I just don't want the roster changes to be limited to Tyler Myers and a player or two from Portland being the new faces on the roster.

Wednesday, June 24, 2009

The not so crazy thought of the day

People are blasting me left and right for the Crazy Thought with regards to signing the Sedins and trading Vanek and Roy for the 1st overall pick.

That's fine. It was a CRAZY THOUGHT!

Now for my not so crazy thought:

Don't sign a single UFA and instead focus on making two to four solid trades to mix things up.

Regier has made some really solid trades over the years and I think that is the way the team needs to go this off season.

Trades like Rhett Warrener and Keith Ballard (to Colorado for Reinprecht and then Steven got flipped to the Flames) for Chris Drury, Chris Gratton for Daniel Briere, Mike Wilson for Rhett Warrener, and Matt Barnaby for Stu Barnes all added the type of leadership that this team needs.

I don't believe it should be beyond Darcy Regier to pull off a few trades that change the make up of this team enough that the attitude change this roster needs is made a reality.

In Regier's interview with WGR 550, he talked about how the team needs to development leadership from within the room. That scared me as I don't have a lot of confidence that guys like Roy, Connolly, Vanek, and Pominville have the inate ability to lead. And don't even get me started about guys like Hecht, Tallinder, and Lydman.

Adding Craig Rivet last year helped the leadership issues on the roster. I would like to see the team make some moves to add one or two more guys like that to the roster. Removing guys like Hecht and Tallinder that are dying for a change of scenery should help as well.

We shall see what Regier has up his sleeve over the next 2 weeks with the draft this weekend and UFA opening up next week.

I won't yell and scream when Jay Bouwmeester signs elsewhere for sick money and a long term.

I will yell and scream if on opening night the only new faces in the Sabres lineup are Tyler Myers and kids from Portland like Tim Kennedy and Mike Weber.

At a minimum, I want one player added who owns a Stanley Cup ring. Is that too much to ask?

Monday, June 22, 2009

Sabres Beat Writer for a Day

The Buffalo News Sports page had a cool twist to Bucky Gleason's "GM for a Day" column that has become somewhat of an annual tradition ahead of the draft and free agency.

This year, not only did Bucky do his thing as "GM for a day", but John Vogl did a "Coach for a day" column and Mike Harrington was "Quinn for a day".

So, I will channel my inner Bucky and do a "Sabres beat writer for a day" blog post.

I was disappointed that Bucky's changes, outside of adding resources to the amateur scouting department, were basically limited to getting rid of some dead weight and adding Jay Bouwmeester.

The talk of adding someone like Mark Howe, Terry Martin, or Les Jackson to the scouting department is something that I can most certainly get on board with. I think that the Sabres would be better off long term if they opted to pull back the player payroll budget $3 or 4 million per year and invested that money on the scouting department to try and unearth more hidden gems.

But after that, Bucky's day leaves me wanting. He talks about getting rid of Jochen Hecht, Henrik Tallinder, and Toni Lydman, but not really about how that would happen. He also leaves the team with a pretty green group of defensemen outside of Craig Rivet and Bouwmeester.

And the forward ranks don't really get the type of change that I would hope for. Also, where is the leadership upgrade that the team desperately needs given the fact that Lindy Ruff is returning as the head coach and it appears that the roster is tired of his message?

Where are the additions of veteran leaders, especially one or more with Cup rings, to help change the locker room dynamic?

Add in the fact that Bucky's moves don't really help the Sabres cap situation in 2010-11 and I'm left really wanting more.

I like Vogl's idea of starting the Mair-Gaustad-Kaleta line and telling them to "Run 'em". But again, I was left wanting.

Given that Vogl's GM for a day left the roster pretty much intact and no new veteran leaders being added to the room, I would wonder how Vogl would change the message to get through to this team that doesn't want to follow their coach's directions on a consistent enough basis to make the playoffs.

Maybe he's buying the players line that they've really learned their lesson this time and next year will be different........

Harrington pulled the easiest duty of the three as pretty much everyone can agree with the thought that Larry Quinn needs to get his nose out of the hockey side of thing, outside of putting pressure on the GM and Head Coach to improve the team A WHOLE LOT and actually MAKE THE PLAYOFFS.

Outside of maybe rattling Darcy and Lindy into being less "status quo", there Quinn doesn't need to do anything on the hockey side of things, IMO.

Crazy Thought of the Day

Most people on the Sabres BB thought I was nuts for proposing that the Sabres move Vanek and Roy and sign the Sedin Twins to the rumored carbon copy 12 yr $63 million deals.

I'll add to the craziness and wonder if the Isles would take Vanek and Roy for the #1 pick?

John Tavares and the Sedin Twins for Vanek and Roy?

I know. It's crazy.........

Friday, June 5, 2009

First the draft and then free agency

The draft is a mere three weeks away and while many are dreaming of the Sabres moving up into the top 5 for a player like Matt Duchene, Evander Kane, or Brayden Schenn, I don't believe that is likely to happen.

Since the lockout, no team has traded out of the top 5 and into the teens. And with younger players being value guys, I can't see that trend changing. Especially since Darcy Regier is unlikely to really blow a team away with a trade offer.

The only time in recent memory where Regier even tried to make a splashy move like that was when he had a trade asset he HAD to move in Michael Peca. But, when he failed to land Rick Nash, he had to settle for the Connolly-Pyatt combo from the Islanders.

If you are looking for some new school ideas on the draft, Puck Prospectus is the place to go. Sure, articles about how impact offensive defensemen are most likely to be drafted in the 1st round and impact goalies largely come from the top 3 rounds isn't earth shattering, but they do seem to cut through some of the traditional thinking (like overvaluing size in players) and go for some of the "Moneyball" type undervalued gems that have been adopted by pretty much everyone in Major League Baseball.

I think a couple of guys that PP will fall in love in this draft will be Windsor defenseman Ryan Ellis and Finnish forward Toni Rajala. Ellis was a PP specialist for Team Canada at the World Jrs and helped lead Windsor to a Memorial Cup title this season. And Rajala was just named the best forward at the U-18 World Championships after bagging 10 goals and 9 assists in 6 games for Finland.

Both seem to have a lack of size as the biggest negative attached to them going into the draft. And Puck Prospectus doesn't seem to buy into that rationalization for decreasing their draft stock.

It will be interesting to see how things work out.

Now about free agency.........

WGR is going topic radio with throwing a name of an UFA to be out there and seeing whom their listeners would like the Sabres to add this off season.

I'm going to go the other way and say that the Sabres #1 priority this off season should be to clear cap space.

CapGeek.com spells out why this should be a priority. The Sabres currently have the 7th worst cap situation in the NHL.

The toughest part of that is that they six teams in worst shape all made the playoffs this season.

Add in the uncertainty of of where the cap will go in 2010-11 and I'm worried that the Sabres will make their cap situation even worse if they dip into the UFA market this off season.

But with Regier and Ruff likely under the gun, my guess is that the long term status of their roster versus the cap won't be their #1 concern heading into UFA...........